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Raleigh Major RAE Predictions
Who will claim victory in Raleigh?
With one worlds spot and a major trophy on the line, sixteen teams are gearing up for the upcoming battle set in North Carolina.
Which of them will claim victory in the final major of the season?
If you'd like an explanation of what exactly RAE is, you can find one here.
EU/SAM/APAC Recap
Here's an overview of how the RAE model did in each region last week.
Europe saw RAE miss its first predictable major team of the season, incorrectly calling
South America continued its streak of being highly predictable, checking in with 86% accuracy.
RAE predicted a respectable 81% of matches correctly in APAC, with
RAE predicted 83% of matches correctly this week, marking its fourth best week of the season.
With the regionals done and dusted, here is how well RAE predicted in each region this season, as well as its performance in each split:
NA : 77% [75% | 79%]EU : 77% [80% | 75%]SAM : 83% [83% | 83%]MENA : 83% [78% | 87%]OCE : 80% [80% | 80%]APAC : 81% [79% | 83%]SSA : 76% [76% | 75%]
With North America and Europe's stronger bubble talent, upsets tended to be more common. The top-heavy SAM and MENA regions were RAE's best, with the constant influx of imports in SSA making predictions in the region the least accurate across all seven. Overall, in regionals only, RAE predicted 79% of matches correctly this season.
Raleigh Major RAE Rankings
Try as I might, by the end of Open #6,
At least North America seems to be more fairly rated this time around. You can thank RAE v1.5 for that.
FURIA and Falcons top 3? Still?
To be clear, RAE no longer thinks that NA is as good as MENA or SAM: By virtue of playing in the stronger region,
Still,
Heading into worlds, things should finally work themselves out, though another mediocre swiss performance from the Americans could see them as low as 6th at the end of the day.
Can anybody catch Karmine: Take 2
If
Once again, they only dropped one series all split (that RAE tracks, so excluding Swiss): a 3-4 against
It's genuinely more likely that
Will Gentle Mates claim EU's final worlds spot?
This shouldn't come as a surprise, but it's exceedingly unlikely.
They need to make it to the grand finals to clinch the EU4 spot for worlds. Their probability of doing so? Just 3.6%. The org beat steeper odds to win the Copenhagen Major last year, so you never know, but the field is just so crowded this time around that it's a tough ask.
RAE Odds for the Raleigh Major
| Team | Top 1 | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 8 | Top 11 | Top 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karmine Corp |
64.4% | 77.8% | 93.0% | 96.7% | 98.5% | >99% | >99% |
 FURIA Esports |
7.5% | 23.4% | 51.2% | 71.3% | 84.0% | 95.9% | >99% |
 Team Falcons |
7.0% | 21.7% | 48.2% | 68.1% | 81.4% | 94.7% | >99% |
 NRG |
6.2% | 20.2% | 46.9% | 67.4% | 80.8% | 94.6% | >99% |
 Dignitas |
5.5% | 18.4% | 43.5% | 64.6% | 79.6% | 94.2% | >99% |
 Team Vitality |
5.1% | 17.2% | 40.7% | 62.5% | 79.6% | 94.5% | >99% |
 Spacestation Gaming |
1.5% | 6.8% | 21.6% | 41.1% | 60.7% | 85.2% | 98.1% |
 The Ultimates |
1.1% | 5.0% | 16.6% | 33.1% | 52.2% | 78.8% | 96.2% |
 Gentle Mates Alpine |
<1% | 3.6% | 13.8% | 31.4% | 53.0% | 82.1% | 98.3% |
 Twisted Minds |
<1% | 3.5% | 12.2% | 26.9% | 47.1% | 75.4% | 95.5% |
 Gen.G Mobil1 Racing |
<1% | 1.5% | 7.1% | 18.5% | 35.7% | 66.5% | 93.6% |
 Team Secret |
<1% | <1% | 4.1% | 12.5% | 27.2% | 57.9% | 90.4% |
 Virtus.pro |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2.8% | 8.9% | 30.8% | 73.2% |
 Wildcard |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2.4% | 7.8% | 28.6% | 71.9% |
 FUT Esports |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2.2% | 12.5% | 46.4% |
 TSM |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1.3% | 8.8% | 38.6% |
RAE Swiss Odds for the Raleigh Major
| Team | 3-0 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmine Corp |
62.3% | 28.6% | 7.5% | 1.2% | <1% | <1% |
| FURIA Esports |
27.9% | 33.1% | 23.0% | 11.9% | 3.9% | <1% |
| NRG |
23.7% | 32.1% | 25.1% | 13.7% | 4.9% | <1% |
| Team Falcons |
22.2% | 33.6% | 25.7% | 13.3% | 4.8% | <1% |
| Dignitas |
20.5% | 33.4% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 5.3% | <1% |
| Team Vitality |
18.4% | 35.5% | 25.8% | 14.9% | 5.0% | <1% |
| Spacestation Gaming |
7.4% | 24.1% | 29.1% | 24.6% | 13.0% | 1.9% |
| Gentle Mates Alpine |
6.6% | 20.5% | 25.8% | 29.1% | 16.2% | 1.8% |
| The Ultimates |
4.4% | 18.5% | 29.3% | 26.6% | 17.5% | 3.8% |
| Twisted Minds |
2.3% | 17.0% | 28.0% | 28.3% | 20.0% | 4.5% |
| Gen.G Mobil1 Racing |
2.3% | 11.2% | 22.2% | 30.8% | 27.1% | 6.4% |
| Team Secret |
1.3% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 30.6% | 32.5% | 9.7% |
| Virtus.pro |
<1% | 2.0% | 6.6% | 21.8% | 42.4% | 26.8% |
| Wildcard |
<1% | 1.8% | 5.8% | 20.9% | 43.4% | 27.9% |
| FUT Esports |
<1% | <1% | 1.7% | 10.3% | 33.9% | 53.7% |
| TSM |
<1% | <1% | 1.0% | 7.4% | 29.9% | 61.4% |
The battle for the last two playoff spots will likely come down to
Here are the odds for each region to win the major:
Karmine Corp (on their own): 64.4%EU (without KC): 10.7%NA : 9.0%MENA : 7.7%SAM : 7.6%OCE : <0.1%APAC : <0.1%SSA : <0.1%
RAE Raleigh Major Hub
The RAE Raleigh Major Hub is officially online and will update with live ratings and event odds as the event progresses.
Here's RAE's predicted top 8:
- 3-0:
Karmine Corp ,FURIA Esports - 3-1:
Team Falcons ,NRG ,Dignitas - 3-2:
Team Vitality ,Spacestation Gaming ,Gentle Mates Alpine
It's going to be a tight battle for the last two spots in the top 8, as four teams (
I'm going to be out of town for the two weeks surrounding the major, which may make any fixes, changes, or even general management of the RAE model difficult, particularly on Thursday and Friday. I'll try my best to get things runnings moothly.
The Matchup Maker page will hopefully be out by the major — all that's left to do is make a mobile-friendly version.
I'll check back in before the first LCQ. Thank you all for the continued support!