Not affiliated with Epic Games, Psyonix, BLAST, or Rocket League.
RAE 2026 LCQ Preview: EU, MENA, SAM
Who will qualify for RLCS' return to Dickies Arena?
The RLCS RAE (Region-Adjusted Elo) Rating system is a predictive model for professional Rocket League, using updating team ratings to generate probabilities for matches, teams, and tournaments. You can read more about it here.
After concluding the year's circuit and taking a break to appreciate the other gamemodes that the game has to offer, competitive 3v3 RLCS returns this weekend with the final four spots at the World Championship — one each for NA, EU, SAM, and MENA — being decided through the Last Chance Qualifiers that will take place over the next three weeks.
Paris Major & RAE Season Recap
Though the event had its fair share of stunners, the Paris Major was, by-and-large, an event that followed the script from match to match. With one American-shaped exception, the Top 6 consisted of most peoples' Top 6 teams in the world (
The main culprits of the model's misses were, as you might expect,
The predictability of the Major ended up giving RAE its highest prediction accuracy at a LAN since the start of RLCS 2024: 78%, a figure that actually exceeds its overall accuracy for this season.
With the regular season concluded, here is how well RAE predicted in each region this season, as well as its performance in each split:
- All Matches: 77% [77% | 78%]
- Regionals: 78% [78% | 78%]
- LAN (incl. Kickoff): 76% [75% | 78%]
NA : 78% [77% | 80%]EU : 76% [78% | 74%]SAM : 79% [79% | 79%]MENA : 79% [81% | 77%]OCE : 80% [78% | 81%]APAC : 76% [80% | 73%]SSA : 79% [75% | 82%]
Comparing to last season, SAM, MENA, and APAC all became much more difficult to predict, particularly in the second split. The model improved significantly in a more stable SSA (thanks to the 2⁄3 rule) while holding steady in NA, EU, and OCE.
Regions with more roster volatility (OCE, MENA, APAC) were generally harder for the model to gauge, particularly in the second split. Regions with fewer roster moves between events (NA, SAM) saw improvement between splits to an extent.
Here’s a preview of what lies in store in the final online events of RLCS 2026.
Skip to region:
EU MENA SAM
Europe
After a chaotic second split for EU's second class, newly formed
Talented
Can Geekay really be trusted?
If, like me, you found yourself watching this
The model's insistence on the team's quality is in part due to the fact that it doesn't track Swiss results on anything more than a pass/fail basis, as Swiss performances are often poor indicators of a team's actual skill. Most RLCS pundits treat team power rankings the same way; it's only a tougher pill to swallow in this case because this is the first time that this iteraiton of the
While the organization's squad in Split 2 struggled mightily, the majority of the team's rating comes from two-thirds of the Split 2
Who's going to be this year's BDS?
Back in 2025,
One team stands out as fitting that billing, albeit in a different sense.
One stat that works in their favor: every player to leave the
RAE Odds — EU LCQ
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 8 | Top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Geekay Esports |
30.8% | 49.4% | 73.6% | 81.6% | 89.1% | 97.3% |
 NOVO Esports |
29.2% | 53.8% | 80.4% | 90.4% | 96.8% | 98.6% |
 Kaydop Corp |
26.1% | 44.2% | 73.1% | 80.7% | 87.9% | 96.9% |
 Mate y Tapa |
5.3% | 18.2% | 49.2% | 64.5% | 74.3% | 95.4% |
 Magnolia |
4.5% | 15.6% | 42.6% | 57.1% | 67.6% | 94.8% |
 Volare |
2.0% | 7.6% | 22.7% | 36.5% | 79.5% | 91.8% |
 Triple pop |
1.6% | 6.8% | 22.2% | 43.2% | 76.5% | 90.0% |
 Team BSK |
<1% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 16.1% | 32.2% | 63.3% |
 PCS Stride |
<1% | <1% | 6.0% | 13.2% | 23.6% | 71.7% |
 The Bricks |
<1% | <1% | 2.7% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 42.5% |
 x |
<1% | <1% | 7.8% | 32.3% | 40.6% | 79.7% |
 TTTinhos |
<1% | <1% | 3.5% | 24.5% | 32.6% | 73.6% |
 No Balls Just Chase |
<1% | <1% | 3.4% | 23.8% | 32.3% | 73.3% |
 123-1 |
<1% | <1% | 3.4% | 24.1% | 32.2% | 73.4% |
 Chippy Chips |
<1% | <1% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 7.9% | 38.1% |
 EmporX Esports |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.3% | 9.6% | 19.6% |
The odds paint a picture of a clear three-way race between
Tough bracket luck knocks down the odds of both
Conversely,
Middle East & North Africa
Unsurprisingly,
How are DOS above Stallions?
When explaining individual rankings like this, I usually find myself explaining why the model disagrees from a general consensus that I subscribe to. In this case, this ranking is 100% defensible.
While
Both
Will R8 be toppled?
Based on how the 2025 LCQs went, you can classify the outlook of each event this year as similar to one of the four from last year.
2026 EU is a 2025 MENA. All other regions fall under the 2025 NA designation: one clear favorite with a handful of other teams trying to enter the conversation.
We all know how that went for
Here's all the teams that
Combine that with their 2-0 record against
RAE Odds — MENA LCQ
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 8 | Top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R8 Esports |
58.7% | 77.8% | 95.1% | 98.8% | 98.9% | >99% |
 DOS |
19.8% | 52.1% | 82.1% | 98.3% | >99% | >99% |
 Team Stallions |
13.7% | 36.4% | 90.2% | 97.4% | 98.9% | >99% |
 NMT |
6.1% | 22.0% | 59.1% | 87.4% | 90.4% | 98.1% |
 Qlean |
1.4% | 8.4% | 40.7% | 79.8% | 87.6% | 95.9% |
 Kaprosuchus |
<1% | 1.8% | 13.2% | 41.5% | 54.2% | 98.8% |
 seirin |
<1% | 1.1% | 11.9% | 36.5% | 50.2% | 84.6% |
 Black Council |
<1% | <1% | 3.6% | 20.8% | 61.4% | 92.3% |
 robert de nero |
<1% | <1% | 1.6% | 13.5% | 42.4% | 84.6% |
 No Mercy |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 8.6% | 43.4% | 85.3% |
 hws |
<1% | <1% | 1.0% | 9.8% | 37.9% | 77.8% |
 alg3bo8 |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 21.4% |
 Road to Texas |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.8% | 6.9% | 57.6% |
 gravesite plain |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 30.2% |
 flha wrbk y7lha |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 30.3% |
 502-511-911 |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 43.7% |
A balanced GSL Stage means that team quality will be the deciding factor, rather than bracket luck; as always, though, a single upset can tilt the scales one way or the other for an underdog looking to make a run.
South America
As to be expected,
A postmortem of SAM's second tier
For the 2025 LCQ, there were six teams in South America with an RAE rating of 1450 or greater, and 13 with a rating of 1100 or greater. In 2026, only 3 and 9 teams fit the those billings, respectively.
Though SAM has historically been a highly top-heavy region, there has also been a high level of competition just below the top ever since
What's left of SAM's A-tier teams is solely
Combined with continued lackluster performances on LAN (
At this rate, it's hard to say if SAM has much future upside, and that's not even considering the increasing dominance of EU over the rest of the world this season. I wouldn't be too surprised to see NA and SAM merge by the time another round of major format revisions takes place.
*While the average age of SAM players isn't much different from in NA or EU, both of these regions have done more to upcycle top talent onto LAN-qualifying rosters, while SAM wunderkinds are often left to play on mid-tier rosters for years if they even get a chance on a top team at all. crn and wisty, for instance, both had to grind their way to the top onRAE Odds — SAM LCQ
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 8 | Top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BS+COMPETITION |
55.1% | 72.8% | 90.0% | 95.0% | 95.7% | >99% |
 Bigodes |
17.8% | 44.9% | 77.7% | 94.5% | >99% | >99% |
 Plot Twist |
16.2% | 37.7% | 69.2% | 81.0% | 85.0% | 96.3% |
 NuTorious |
4.8% | 13.6% | 40.0% | 62.0% | 67.6% | >99% |
 FOFUCHOS |
2.4% | 12.7% | 50.9% | 90.1% | 96.7% | >99% |
 Disasterclass |
2.2% | 11.1% | 36.5% | 74.6% | 77.8% | 88.2% |
 Novadrift |
1.5% | 6.3% | 24.2% | 41.5% | 47.3% | 81.5% |
 twitter |
<1% | <1% | 8.1% | 29.7% | 78.6% | 97.1% |
 Sangres |
<1% | <1% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 34.0% |
 pitbulls |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 9.8% | 40.4% | 81.9% |
 Os Garimpeiros |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 6.3% | 31.3% | 74.5% |
 the urubus |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2.7% | 11.4% | 44.2% |
 25 Shot Club |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.5% | 22.1% | 51.2% |
 butler mentality |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1.1% | 20.3% | 51.9% |
 planB |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4.5% | 53.4% |
 Trust The Process |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3.7% | 46.9% |
Very similarly to MENA, SAM's LCQ sees one team —
A separate article for North America's Last Chance Qualifier can be read here.
To summarize, here's who RAE thinks qualifies for the World Championship out of each region:
EU :Geekay Esports MENA :R8 Esports SAM :BS+COMPETITION
As to be expected, the yearlong No. 3s who challenged their regions' No. 2s are the favorites in MENA and SAM; it will be a tall task for anyone to take down either