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RAE Predictions — 2026 Boston Open #3 (Week One)

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RAE Predictions — 2026 Boston Open #3 (Week One)

Which teams will qualify for RLCS' return to Boston?

Published:

After a break that felt much longer than it actually was, the RLCS is racing towards its first Major of the season, with just one event per region separating 16 teams from a trip to Boston.

Six regions (all besides North America will send their representatives) to the first lan of the new year this weekend, with just 9 spots remaining between them after Karmine Corp, Team Falcons, and Twisted Minds secured their spots at the Kickoff LAN and during the MENA Swiss Stage, respectively.

If you'd like a detailed explanation of what exactly RAE is, you can find one here.

Kickoff LAN Recap

Though we were only treated to 17 matches (only 6 of which were between NA and EU teams), the Kickoff LAN gave us a good taste of what may be to come in Boston and beyond.

RAE clocked a 76% accuracy rate across all matches on the LAN stage, which can be broken down as follows:

  • EU Top 6: 5/6 (83%)
  • NA Top 6: 6/6 (100%)
  • Kickoff Bracket: 4/7 (57%)

NOVO's shock reverse sweep over Manchester City caused the model's only hiccup in intraregional play, but the international performance gave it some more trouble.

I talked about this in the Kickoff LAN write-up, but the model rated [REDACTED] very low coming into the event, and its rating only ticked up to 1572 by the time the international bracket started, leaving it as an underdog against NOVO and, more understandably, NiP.

The last miss came when the model predicted Spacestation to lose to Vitality in the quarterfinals; with both teams around their region's third-best at the time of the series, RAE gave the advantage towards what it perceived as the stronger region (EU).

Still, considering how much [REDACTED] scrambled things up, a 76% mark is still very solid for the debut of RAE's 2026 model.

Europe

11001100 18001800 1 Rating: 1988 1988 Karmine Corp LogoKarmine CorpAtow, juicy, Vatira 2 Rating: 1848 1848 Gentle Mates LogoGentle MatesArchie, Oski, nass 3 Rating: 1847 1847 Team Vitality LogoTeam VitalityExoTiiK, stizzy, zen 4 Rating: 1782 1782 Geekay Esports LogoGeekay EsportsApparentlyJack, Joyo, Seikoo 5 Rating: 1757 1757 Ninjas in Pyjamas LogoNinjas in Pyjamascrr, Joreuz, oaly. 6 Rating: 1706 1706 Magnifico LogoMagnificoAtomiK, Rezears, Tox 7 Rating: 1609 1609 Manchester City Esports LogoManchester City EsportsAccro, ejby, TempoH 8 Rating: 1564 1564 NOVO Esports LogoNOVO EsportsAcroniK., GiuK, Nico 9 Rating: 1425 1425 RST LogoRSTrehzzy, Smokez, Toxiic 10 Rating: 1419 1419 Team BSK LogoTeam BSKGrowlii, Pisky, rysfox. 11 Rating: 1373 1373 FN LogoFNivn, Rizex, scream. 12 Rating: 1309 1309 GHT LogoGHTGramma, Hyderr, tms 13 Rating: 1292 1292 Cloud eSport LogoCloud eSportbadnezz, JWeyts, wozyen 14 Rating: 1283 1283 Seleção LogoSeleçãoEver, Pluvo, smashy 15 Rating: 1251 1251 CALIENTE LogoCALIENTEAnoriQ, MayKo, saizen 16 Rating: 1244 1244 WYLDE LogoWYLDEbibbaba, osaft, pukis

Karmine are clearly on top in RAE's eyes, with Gentle Mates and Team Vitality neck-and-neck for the EU2 spot. Geekay and NiP, then Magnifico, round out a fairly clear top 6, with Man City and NOVO making it above the harsh top 8 cuttoff thanks to GentleBench's absence.

Let's go over some of the more controversial picks.

Is Magnifico really clear of Man City?

Let's get one thing straight: Magnifico had a damn good Open #2. While people tend to value playoff performances over those in the group stage, RAE views all matches evenly, so outright winning against then-red-hot Karmine and Ninjas teams at least gives them a good argument to be above a Man City team that most people had power-ranked sixth in EU.

Still, for Magnifico to be 100 rating points ahead of Man City may be eye-catching at first, but when you consider that RAE is purely results-based, it starts to make sense.

While Magnifico has the two aforementioned wins over EU "Big 4" teams, Man City's best win this season is probably... GentleBench (RAE doesn't include Swiss matches in its data)? Unfortunately for the Danes and Bruv, game 7 losses against good teams aren't nearly as beneficial to your rating as winning those matches is. So, until they start beating teams like Gentle Mates, Karmine, and even NOVO, they'll stay where they are.

It's also important to note that though it doesn't matter as much at this point in the season, Man City entered RLCS 2026 with a rating of 1567, while Magnifico started with a very high 1661.

Can either of them make a miracle run to the Major?

As always, the answer is probably not.

It really is unfortunately for both Magnifico and Man City that Geekay flopped their way to a grand finals in Open #2; if they lose before then, GK sits at a much more surpassable 7 or 9 points instead of the 12 they have now (both teams behind them are at 8).

The only boon for the two is that there is a realistic bracket where Geekay run into Vitality in lower round one of the playoff bracket. An 8th place exit would give some life to the chase pack, as they'd only need a Top 4 — difficult, yes, but still doable.

Technically, Gentle Mates are tied with Geekay, so both MGN and MCI only need one of the two to trip up before the Top 6, but Mates' bracket is much friendlier, and they're generally a better team. We'll see if Tox can break his one-spot-off-of-LAN streak this split.

RAE Odds — EU Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  Karmine Corp  ✓  52.2%  67.1%  88.0%  94.0%  98.4%  >99%
  Ninjas in Pyjamas  98.2%  5.2%  20.3%  48.1%  74.0%  89.6%  >99%
  Team Vitality  97.9%  13.3%  26.2%  63.8%  83.2%  94.3%  >99%
  Gentle Mates  94.7%  19.2%  47.0%  80.1%  94.6%  96.3%  >99%
  Geekay Esports  86.7%  7.0%  22.2%  51.6%  75.4%  92.1%  >99%
  Magnifico  15.8%  2.5%  12.3%  38.7%  72.2%  86.8%  98.0%
  Manchester City Esports  6.0%  <1%  3.8%  19.5%  55.0%  80.5%  95.6%
  NOVO Esports  <1%  <1%  <1%  6.0%  22.6%  59.1%  85.0%
  Team BSK  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.7%  10.1%  25.3%  83.8%
  RST  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.3%  7.7%  22.0%  68.5%
  FN  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  5.1%  17.5%  75.6%
  GHT  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.8%  4.5%  40.8%
  Cloud eSport  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  2.3%  10.2%  37.9%
  Seleção  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.2%  11.2%  56.3%
  WYLDE  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  7.5%  44.5%
  CALIENTE  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  4.7%  15.9%

Karmine Corp locked up their LAN spot months ago, and both Vitality and NiP are overwhelmingly likely to join them by the event's end.

Gentle Mates and Geekay are heavy favorites for the last two tickets to Boston, though the latter is slightly more vulnerable than the former.

Magnifico and Man City are both looking to pounce on a mistake by either of the 12-point teams, with nobody else having more than a 1% chance to qualify to LAN.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — EU Open #3

Only teams with >0.5% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  Karmine Corp  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓
  Ninjas in Pyjamas  98.2%  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  97.4%  86.1%  85.0%
  Team Vitality  97.9%  ✓  ✓  ✓  >99%  89.9%  85.5%  72.6%
  Gentle Mates  94.7%  ✓  ✓  >99%  87.2%  64.2%  26.0%  14.3%
  Geekay Esports  86.7%  ✓  ✓  >99%  86.9%  69.4%  39.0%  21.0%
  Magnifico  15.8%  ✓  86.8%  18.2%  <1%  -  -  -
  Manchester City Esports  6.0%  ✓  88.2%  16.4%  <1%  -  -  -
  NOVO Esports  <1%  ✓  56.2%  2.8%  -  -  -  -

While KC is a lock, and Vitality and NiP are likely in regardless of what happens, the benchmarks for other teams is more notable.

Mates and Geekay are both looking for a Top 8 to have a good shot, and a Top 6 would likely secure Major spots for each.

Magifico and Man City would sit fairly comfortably with a Top 2, and a grand finals appearance for NOVO would give them better-than-coinflip odds of making it to Boston, as well.

Middle East & North Africa

900900 18001800 1 Rating: 1999 1999 Team Falcons LogoTeam Falconsdralii, Kiileerrz, Rw9 2 Rating: 1909 1909 Twisted Minds LogoTwisted MindsM0nkey M00n, Nwpo, Trk511 3 Rating: 1636 1636 R8 Esports LogoR8 EsportsAbdullah, Ghaazi, M7md 4 Rating: 1581 1581 DOS LogoDOSDrKnown, ops, Suspect 5 Rating: 1537 1537 MMT LogoMMTM7sn, Mesho, T7LM 6 Rating: 1434 1434 alyom w ana b alsh8l Logoalyom w ana b alsh8lHatem, o0vvl, SQQP 7 Rating: 1421 1421 Sleeping LogoSleepingB2seL, Fsol, Yazeed 8 Rating: 1377 1377 Nothing LogoNothingiSL6Nii, Nadr, oVaMPiERz 9 Rating: 1297 1297 Everything LogoEverythingcAbdllah, Fbi, Willie 10 Rating: 1248 1248 DfN LogoDfNDark(?), Fera, No One 11 Rating: 1218 1218 Nightmare LogoNightmareM6R, lynx, Ziyad 12 Rating: 1163 1163 Eternity LogoEternityKing, Ritsune, zeeyad 13 Rating: 1152 1152 ExciTinG1 LogoExciTinG1doffy, isRakan, nmj 14 Rating: 1144 1144 We Don't Know LogoWe Don't KnowJSM, Nawaf, z4 15 Rating: 1107 1107 elite-2 Logoelite-2Nym0, Raed, t9berh 16 Rating: 1061 1061 RTK LogoRTKKJJ., Rxa, Tfzu.

Team Falcons and Twisted Minds, the best and fourth-best teams in the world according to RAE, respectively, form a rock-solid Top 2 in MENA. About 300 rating points down are R8, followed by DOS and MMT (Team Stallions, despite missing Open #3 entirely, checks in at about this rating). Open #2 semifinalists alyom w ana b alsh8l join Sleeping and Nothing to round out MENA's Top 8 for this event.

Are MENA really this good internationally?

Yes. Is anyone really saying otherwise? Falcons just got 2nd at Worlds, then picked up dralii, who was a top 5 player in the world last season. Twisted flanked one of the world's best individual performers with the MENA GOAT and Open Era GOAT.

This probably isn't a controversial take. I just having nothing to say about MENA, to be honest.

Anyone want to take bets on which team is going to take a 3-2 or 3-1 lead on Falcons before losing all of their momentum thanks to a convenient tech pause? I feel like it's DOS' turn.

RAE Odds — MENA Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  Team Falcons  ✓  63.2%  88.6%  >99%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  Twisted Minds  ✓  34.0%  79.5%  98.6%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  R8 Esports  -  1.7%  15.4%  70.8%  91.6%  97.3%  >99%
  DOS  -  <1%  8.8%  50.9%  87.8%  92.1%  98.2%
  MMT  -  <1%  5.7%  45.6%  76.4%  92.4%  98.1%
  alyom w ana b alsh8l  -  <1%  1.0%  16.3%  56.7%  65.0%  92.0%
  Sleeping  -  <1%  <1%  9.8%  32.0%  62.3%  90.8%
  Nothing  -  <1%  <1%  5.0%  21.5%  41.7%  87.0%
  Everything  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  4.2%  16.8%  52.5%
  DfN  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  8.1%  17.8%  60.6%
  Nightmare  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  8.7%  37.4%  61.0%
  We Don't Know  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.7%  22.6%  80.3%
  Eternity  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  4.1%  22.3%  41.7%
  ExciTinG1  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.9%  24.1%  81.7%
  elite-2  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.5%  4.8%  19.0%
  RTK  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.9%  38.0%

Falcons and Twisted are both locked for Boston, meaning that the only fight here is for the MENA #1 seed. RAE favors Falcons by about a 2:1 margin.

Honestly, given how clear-cut MENA's Top 2 are and the season format, Opens #3–6 will really only serve as tryouts for all other teams that will form for the region's only real competition that matters for 99% of players: the LCQ.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — MENA Open #3

Only teams with >0.5% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  Team Falcons  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓
  Twisted Minds  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓

Both Team Falcons and Twisted Minds have clinched a spot at the Boston Major.

South America

800800 15501550 1 Rating: 1739 1739 FURIA Esports LogoFURIA EsportsLostt, swiftt, yANXNZ 2 Rating: 1673 1673 MIBR LogoMIBRAztromick, Reysbull, Sad 3 Rating: 1660 1660 Team Secret LogoTeam SecretDRUFINHO, kv1, Motta 4 Rating: 1524 1524 Amethyst LogoAmethystcrn, suco, wisty 5 Rating: 1479 1479 Chromax LogoChromaxBemmz, brad, Droppz 6 Rating: 1367 1367 Three Point Shooters LogoThree Point Shootersklaus, pan, UmBroken 7 Rating: 1293 1293 Novadrift LogoNovadriftKevinacho, KnS, misery 8 Rating: 1255 1255 Sanificados LogoSanificadosFolly, LagLy, seck 9 Rating: 1236 1236 Chinatown LogoChinatownDavitrox, Rmn, zett 10 Rating: 1229 1229 Emerald LogoEmeraldnachosky, Nuqqet, roods 11 Rating: 1177 1177 Enosis eSports LogoEnosis eSportsDeliivery, lucas06, snipjz 12 Rating: 1116 1116 bandoleiros LogobandoleirosLaucha, Reisplasma, twistt 13 Rating: 1070 1070 PAC LogoPACaguz, Crespt, PJTAO 15 Rating: 946 946 PDO LogoPDOdaavi, obtth, pancardes 14 Rating: 946 946 NoPlanB LogoNoPlanBpulga, reekkan, Shezzffy 16 Rating: 946 946 SDB LogoSDBbrunozyy, DylaN, Shadow

Despite a surprise loss in the semifinals of Open #2, FURIA remain a tick above MIBR and Secret in the model's eyes. Amethyst, then Chromax, round out a Top 5 that composes essentially all of the region's competitive teams.

Are we in for another dogfight in SAM?

South America finally has a Major race that presents some intrigue, and not a moment too soon for the region.

It's come at the cost of having one true international contender (FURIA, MIBR, and Team Secret all sit in the 11–17 range in the global rankings), but SAM has three teams that have traded blows through the first two opens of RLCS 2026.

Granted, it's not quite a true three-way race; Secret are still well on the outside looking in of the picture thanks to MIBR being eight points clear of the Brazilians. FURIA, still the region's top team by a tick according to RAE, will be their main competition for a spot.

Naturally, it will come down to Secret's performance to determine how close the Major race will be. After struggling against MIBR all split, they finally picked up a notable win against FURIA in Open #2, but they will need to consistently perform to that level to knock the Panthers out of a Major spot for the first time since Winter 22-23.

RAE Odds — SAM Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  MIBR  88.7%  24.4%  51.0%  78.4%  89.1%  90.5%  >99%
  FURIA Esports  82.6%  44.8%  68.0%  88.3%  94.4%  95.1%  >99%
  Team Secret  26.9%  25.1%  54.1%  84.8%  96.7%  98.8%  >99%
  Amethyst  1.8%  3.3%  12.3%  42.8%  56.8%  64.7%  96.2%
  Novadrift  <1%  <1%  <1%  7.5%  26.4%  63.1%  93.7%
  Chromax  -  1.7%  7.4%  29.2%  47.4%  53.4%  99.0%
  Three Point Shooters  -  <1%  5.2%  41.8%  76.8%  88.8%  97.7%
  Sanificados  -  <1%  <1%  10.1%  35.6%  63.1%  92.8%
  Emerald  -  <1%  <1%  6.8%  25.9%  46.8%  85.7%
  Chinatown  -  <1%  <1%  4.9%  20.6%  42.7%  82.2%
  Enosis eSports  -  <1%  <1%  4.2%  19.9%  44.1%  84.5%
  bandoleiros  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.7%  18.5%  52.1%
  PAC  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.8%  17.8%  54.4%
  PDO  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.6%  5.8%  25.0%
  NoPlanB  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.6%  18.8%
  SDB  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.3%  18.9%

MIBR's comfortable points lead gives them the highest chance to make it to Boston, with FURIA's best-in-SAM quality moving RAE to give them the nod to take SAM's second spot.

Still, neither team is very comfortable, and Secret still have more than a fighting chance to surpass one of the two. Amethyst remains hanging around on the fringes of the Major race, while Novadrift will need several thousand miracles to clinch a place on LAN.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — SAM Open #3

Only teams with >0.5% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  MIBR  88.7%  ✓  ✓  88.1%  75.8%  66.1%  49.2%  30.3%
  FURIA Esports  82.6%  ✓  96.1%  59.1%  40.9%  21.6%  18.4%  5.2%
  Team Secret  26.9%  91.8%  12.4%  <1%  -  -  -  -
  Amethyst  1.8%  52.9%  <1%  -  -  -  -  -

Thanks to their points lead, MIBR only need a Top 4 to feel comfortable in their Major clinch, or at least a Top 8/Top 6 to have solid odds.

FURIA's quality does a lot of heavy lifting for their Major odds; even a Top 4 finish will leave them anxiously watching Secret to see if they'll even get the right to play in a tiebreaker.

For Secret themselves, it's largely win-or-bust, with a 2nd place relying on FURIA to finish outside of the Top 4. Amethyst are in the same boat, but for them, a win only gets them to odds slightly above 50%.

Oceania

700700 14501450 1 Rating: 1670 1670 Wildcard LogoWildcardbananahead, Fever, Torsos 2 Rating: 1548 1548 PWR LogoPWRFibérr, gus, Superlachie 3 Rating: 1475 1475 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs LogoCanterbury-Bankstown BulldogsCaleb, hntr, kaka 4 Rating: 1245 1245 Batman on wheels LogoBatman on wheelsEvohpaniniwine, Kekkles, Laxin 5 Rating: 1230 1230 you not a champ. you a clown. Logoyou not a champ. you a clown.Decka, mock, Shorez 6 Rating: 1143 1143 aight Logoaightnerve, Skworchi, zombiefreak 7 Rating: 1074 1074 Top 48 LogoTop 48Inspire, jimmo, Prompt 8 Rating: 1063 1063 Miami Metro LogoMiami MetroBal, euxsy, Misty 9 Rating: 1024 1024 Wild LogoWildKuipier, nachi, Werthy 10 Rating: 1011 1011 Dogged & Dangerous LogoDogged & Dangerousjuck, mKaD, Shugs. 11 Rating: 995 995 Vade Esports LogoVade Esportsnasty, Vult, zenulous 12 Rating: 929 929 no scrimmers Logono scrimmersCrazy, Milo, shin 13 Rating: 928 928 Team LogoTeamCobbo, Evample, Orang 14 Rating: 876 876 Dumb Luck Esports LogoDumb Luck EsportsBubz, Korp, Physical 15 Rating: 871 871 The Babysitter LogoThe BabysitterElectro, Eminence, Lux 16 Rating: 860 860 power puff boys Logopower puff boysaquaduk, levcn, Lucifer

Despite underperforming in Open #1, Wildcard remains OCE's strongest team by a decent margin. PWR and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs are a clear 2nd and 3rd, while Batman on Wheels and you not a champ. you a clown. check in at 4th and 5th, respectively. aight rounds out the Top 6 before the quality of teams gradually staggers download.

Also, let me give a brief shoutout to Taumatawhakatangihangakoauauotamateaturipukakapikimaungahoronukupokaiwhenuakitanatahu for missing Top 16, as I've had to deal with long team names plenty this year already and that would've probably been a bridge too far for me.

Can Wildcard contend internationally on a consistent basis?

Before I get into this, I want to make it clear that I'm not putting the cart before the horse. Wildcard are far from locked into a spot in Boston, and PWR could very well take this spot. However, when it comes to someone competing seriously on LAN, only one of the two has a proven track record, and that's the group of Aussies who placed Top 6 at Worlds last year.

The thing about Wildcard is that despite their Worlds performance jumping them up by an astronomical 130 rating (and the off-season adjustment only knocking off 50), they still sit below 1700 because of how low they started before Worlds.

Historically, OCE has been anything but competitive on LAN more or less since the Open Era started, and one strong performance can't undo years of damage. They need to be consistently dominating in regional events to gain rating mid-split, and even their romp through Open #2 (where they dropped one game, total) only net them 30 points.

The good news for Wildcard is that a group stage format where you only realistically need to win two series to make it to Top 8 (sound familiar?) benefits underdogs in a big way. RAE just needs to see them repeat the performance they had at Worlds to believe in them more consistently.

Who knows? With how SAM's looked, maybe an OCE LCQ spot could be in the cards.

RAE Odds — OCE Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  Wildcard  71.7%  64.2%  86.3%  98.4%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  PWR  28.3%  23.9%  63.2%  96.8%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs  <1%  11.2%  41.6%  87.6%  96.4%  98.1%  >99%
  Batman on Wheels  -  <1%  3.0%  36.6%  62.1%  81.1%  94.0%
  you not a champ. you a clown.  -  <1%  3.5%  29.2%  60.8%  77.8%  98.0%
  aight  -  <1%  1.3%  21.1%  54.9%  70.1%  90.8%
  Miami Metro  -  <1%  <1%  12.8%  47.0%  59.8%  84.1%
  Top 48  -  <1%  <1%  4.2%  17.5%  47.0%  69.2%
  Wild  -  <1%  <1%  5.9%  23.6%  37.2%  71.6%
  Vade Esports  -  <1%  <1%  2.9%  12.2%  32.0%  89.0%
  Dogged & Dangerous  -  <1%  <1%  1.2%  6.2%  21.1%  36.9%
  no scrimmers  -  <1%  <1%  1.8%  10.7%  23.8%  53.5%
  Team  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.5%  19.7%  55.2%
  Dumb Luck Esports  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.1%  13.4%  67.7%
  The Babysitter  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.9%  13.5%  47.0%
  power puff boys  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  1.4%  6.3%  43.3%

RAE favors Wildcard to secure OCE's final and only spot at the Boston Major, with PWR given a bit more than a 1-in-4 chance to take them down. Other than the two main contenders, only Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs remain mathematically alive for the Major.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — OCE Open #3

Only teams with >0.5% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  Wildcard  71.7%  ✓  30.0%  7.0%  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%
  PWR  28.3%  ✓  9.9%  1.5%  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%

For Wildcard and PWR, the name of the game is simple: outplace the other.

Not pictured: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, who need a 1st place and for both of the Top 2 teams to go out on Friday to clinch a Major spot.

Asia-Pacific

500500 13001300 1 Rating: 1488 1488 Project Delacruz LogoProject DelacruzCatalysm, Kevin, Sphinx 2 Rating: 1261 1261 KINOTROPE gaming LogoKINOTROPE gamingfurlashh, Kash, Maxeew 3 Rating: 1107 1107 Ground Zero Gaming LogoGround Zero Gamingnai, risk, valid 4 Rating: 989 989 Overlooked LogoOverlookedjB0X, Lunatic., Taha 5 Rating: 915 915 Xing Xi Xooters LogoXing Xi XootersBunnyDummy, Mscdi, Porsas 6 Rating: 892 892 Sailing Esports LogoSailing EsportsMohanned, Rayy14, Tossis. 7 Rating: 871 871 God Speed LogoGod Speedeco, FNSi, Rigorous 8 Rating: 847 847 BearClaw Gaming LogoBearClaw GamingBlue, Glass, Madhin 9 Rating: 845 845 INARIZAKI LogoINARIZAKIEasy, Kenny, Tank 10 Rating: 817 817 Big Dawgs LogoBig DawgsAbscrazy, Karviń, Våv 11 Rating: 796 796 J.CHICKEN Esports LogoJ.CHICKEN Esportshallow, Kylo, Omexy 12 Rating: 705 705 Dreamstation LogoDreamstationBurn, katarinabluu, Ringo 14 Rating: 667 667 MGL eSports LogoMGL eSports9lance, Dalanz, zTsoo 16 Rating: 667 667 We Yes WE Are Asian LogoWe Yes WE Are Asianblugnini bob, CMS_._, Pride 13 Rating: 667 667 CHARMY LogoCHARMYHiroki, Medoūsa, yuuyu1173 15 Rating: 667 667 Random. LogoRandom.Deidara., itachi., Sleep deprived

To nobody's surprise, Project Delacruz are APAC's clear #1, with KINOTROPE gaming and Ground Zero Gaming set at #2 and #3. A solid Overlooked roster claims 4th in place of the missing Northstar Gaming, who forfeit out of the Swiss Stage.

Can Project Delacruz contend internationally?

Huh. Déjà vu.

The new changes I made to the pre-season adjustment formula meant that most solid minor region teams largely kept their high ratings, but there was one exception to this rule: Project Delacruz.

Thanks to sosa leaving to pursue FUT-ier pastures (?) in NA after the 2/3 rule was instated, Sphinx and Catalysm decided that Kevin was the best choice to replace him. He was one of the better choices in terms of domestic talent available to team with to the duo, but his place on the roster means that their rating started at 1444 instead of 1562.

Most of this is because Virtus.pro was incredibly clear of just about everybody else in APAC last season (including the base region rating, making their adjustment harsher than normal to begin with), but at least as the model sees it, PDLC will have to once again prove that they belong on the world stage. With how the rest of the world looks at the moment, that isn't exactly unmerited, but the correction was definitely on the strong side.

Combined with the weakness of APAC domestically this season (the 2/3 rule removed a handful of EU bubble talent that had provided a ratings influx since RLCS 2024), this all amounts to APAC's #1 likely heading into LAN as the second-worst team by a decent margin.

There just isn't that much you can do to impress the RAE system when your best competition is furlashh in 2026.

RAE Odds — APAC Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  Project Delacruz  >99%  80.8%  92.6%  >99%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  KINOTROPE gaming  <1%  16.4%  68.1%  94.8%  96.3%  98.9%  >99%
  Ground Zero Gaming  <1%  1.9%  14.2%  53.6%  63.6%  80.9%  93.9%
  Overlooked  -  <1%  10.0%  34.8%  50.2%  81.2%  97.9%
  God Speed  -  <1%  3.9%  26.9%  58.4%  74.2%  92.4%
  Xing Xi Xooters  -  <1%  3.1%  16.7%  27.6%  41.8%  63.8%
  INARIZAKI  -  <1%  2.6%  19.6%  47.1%  54.0%  87.4%
  BearClaw Gaming  -  <1%  2.3%  16.6%  39.9%  46.4%  85.2%
  Sailing Esports  -  <1%  <1%  6.3%  11.7%  26.5%  42.6%
  J.CHICKEN Esports  -  <1%  1.3%  12.7%  36.2%  56.1%  85.6%
  Big Dawgs  -  <1%  1.0%  10.1%  28.8%  38.0%  80.4%
  Dreamstation  -  <1%  <1%  3.6%  15.9%  31.1%  67.9%
  Random.  -  <1%  <1%  2.0%  10.3%  20.7%  54.1%
  CHARMY  -  <1%  <1%  1.5%  8.4%  12.7%  47.1%
  We Yes WE are Asian  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.4%  20.7%  55.5%
  MGL eSports  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  2.9%  17.2%  46.8%

With nearly 99.9% odds of clinching their spot at the Major Project Delacruz are in the drivers' seat for APAC's only ticket to Boston. It'd take a miracle for KINOTROPE or Ground Zero to beat them to the finish line.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — APAC Open #3

Only teams with >0.1% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  Project Delacruz  >99%  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  ✓  87.3%  10.5%
  KINOTROPE gaming  <1%  <1%  -  -  -  -  -  -
  Ground Zero Gaming  <1%  1.7%  -  -  -  -  -  -

Project Delacruz just needs to make it to Saturday to qualify for the Major.

If they have a shock Day 1 exit, then KINOTROPE and Ground Zero will battle each other for the final spot — before potentially playing PDLC in a tiebreaker if the favorites finish 9th-12th.

Sub-Saharan Africa

400400 11001100 "1 Rating: 1310 1310 Pioneers LogoPioneers2Die4, LuiisP, Sweaty" "2 Rating: 1241 1241 Five Fears LogoFive Fearsgunz, Snowyy, TehQoz" "3 Rating: 1025 1025 Looking for Organization LogoLooking for OrganizationEliakimZA, TORRES8232, Werty ^^" "4 Rating: 1001 1001 Brocrocros LogoBrocrocrosJeff, Ravi, Stake" "5 Rating: 870 870 Amapiano LogoAmapianokamz, kexii, N1tro" "6 Rating: 840 840 Synthesis LogoSynthesisDapz, Declan, meshinn" "7 Rating: 826 826 Astronic Esports LogoAstronic EsportsDevour, insp1re, SkillSteal" "8 Rating: 822 822 Death Cloud Esports LogoDeath Cloud EsportsTeschow, tweex, twnzr" "9 Rating: 790 790 ROUNDS LogoROUNDSmarssyy, onizumaa, Renshiro" "10 Rating: 766 766 Str1ve eSports LogoStr1ve eSportsegle, halouest, Wiiilooo" "11 Rating: 745 745 Akimbo Esports LogoAkimbo EsportsASN_RuBiiX, Ram, Strutic" "12 Rating: 739 739 Unity LogoUnityFriction, Lackstar, SchalkG" "13 Rating: 697 697 Supersonic Legends LogoSupersonic LegendsBairechuu, dylan, Mercury" "14 Rating: 696 696 Team HSK LogoTeam HSKAnyeelo., BigFoot, Duklaz" "15 Rating: 693 693 SZ5 LogoSZ55bs, Staar, Zany" "16 Rating: 557 557 T2G Esports LogoT2G EsportsRafgr., Sullyxnz, TyKop."

Pioneers and Five Fears form SSA's Top 2, with Looking for Organization and Brocrocros distinctly within the Top 4. SSA tends to recycle its talent more than other minor regions, preventing the creation of the island of bottom teams that you see in their regional rankings.

How much of an underdog is Five Fears?

The overwhelming expectation coming into RLCS 2026 was that Pioneers would make, if not quick work of SSA's online events, at least win a comfortable majority of them.

That narrative was quickly challenged in Open #1 after close wins against LFO and Five Fears in bracket before being dispatched by the latter in Open #2. Pioneers, if they were dominating SSA to this point in the split, could have had a rating upwards of 50 points higher than where they stand now. Instead, they've been stagnant, and their Major qualification is at risk.

Looking just at the names on the rosters, it's not hard to see how Five Fears has been so competitive this season. In pairing veteran racist Snowyy with Spanish racist tehqoz and young striker gunz, the team looked to have assembled a strong trio; the only real question was if Snowyy was still able to contend at a high level. He's passed that test easily so far.

Pioneers still have two of the best native-born players in the region in 2Die4 and Sweaty, but LuiisP hasn't been the home-run acquisition that Pioneers had hoped he'd be. A step-up from him would be much appreciated as the team looks to get their season back on track in Open #3.

RAE Odds — SSA Open #3

Team Major Top 1 Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Top 12
  Pioneers  60.5%  58.0%  85.8%  98.2%  >99%  >99%  >99%
  Five Fears  39.5%  37.0%  80.5%  96.4%  98.7%  >99%  >99%
  Brocrocros  <1%  1.8%  11.3%  50.9%  74.1%  82.0%  92.5%
  Looking for Organization  -  2.6%  14.5%  56.8%  77.5%  85.0%  93.7%
  Synthesis  -  <1%  1.9%  22.0%  53.2%  60.2%  87.7%
  Amapiano  -  <1%  1.8%  17.7%  34.9%  63.3%  90.7%
  Astronic Esports  -  <1%  1.3%  15.0%  31.3%  54.7%  93.9%
  Death Cloud Esports  -  <1%  <1%  8.9%  21.2%  38.7%  60.4%
  Str1ve eSports  -  <1%  <1%  11.3%  33.6%  44.0%  79.3%
  ROUNDS  -  <1%  <1%  5.9%  15.7%  31.7%  53.4%
  Unity  -  <1%  <1%  7.2%  22.1%  32.1%  69.3%
  Akimbo Esports  -  <1%  <1%  3.0%  10.1%  35.0%  70.3%
  Supersonic Legends  -  <1%  <1%  4.4%  17.7%  26.4%  63.7%
  Team HSK  -  <1%  <1%  1.6%  6.7%  28.4%  78.1%
  SZ5  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  3.3%  14.8%  39.1%
  T2G Esports  -  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  5.3%  28.1%

RAE likes Pioneers to pip Five Fears to claim SSA's final Major spot, which will likely come down to the winner of Open #3. The margin — just 60% to 40% — is smaller than expected, though.

RAE Major Odds by Placement — SSA Open #3

Only teams with >0.1% chance of qualifying for the Major are shown. Some odds may be inaccurate due to the low sample size of that specific outcome.
Team Overall 1st 2nd 3rd-4th 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th-12th 13th-16th
  Pioneers  60.5%  ✓  6.4%  5.5%  1.4%  2.9%  <1%  <1%
  Five Fears  39.5%  ✓  4.7%  2.8%  <1%  1.8%  <1%  <1%

Except for the one scenario where Brocrocros use up a lifetime's worth of luck to qualify for a Rocket League LAN, SSA, like OCE, will come down to just two teams head-to-head: Pioneers and Five Fears.

One thing I want to note here — the reason why both teams have slightly higher odds of qualifying after placing 7th-8th compared to 5th-6th is because these teams are likely to play each other for a Top 4 spot in the AFL Upper Bracket, meaning that whichever one wins that matchup is guaranteed to finish above the other if they get eliminated the day after.

If you see any odds throughout the rest of this article that look a little off, it's likely due to the same reason.

To summarize, here's who RAE thinks qualifies for the Major out of each region:

  • EU: Karmine Corp, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Team Vitality, Gentle Mates, Geekay Esports
  • MENA: Team Falcons, Twisted Minds
  • SAM: MIBR, FURIA Esports
  • OCE: Wildcard
  • APAC: Project Delacruz
  • SSA: Pioneers

Apologies for any typos or grammatical inaccuracies you may find in this article; I've been writing this for the past three hours and am both delusional and sleep deprived. Shoutout to BLAST for testing me by putting six of the seven regions (behave yourselves) on the same weekend.

I hope you enjoyed the new Major Odds by Placement tables — I've been using them with the Rocket Street team for a while, and I thought you'd appreciate them putting the Major races into a bit more context. See you all next week for NA.

RLCS 2026 RAE Prediction Accuracy: 77%