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RAE Predictions — 2026 Kickoff LAN

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RAE Predictions — 2026 Kickoff LAN

Who will claim the first LAN title of RLCS 2026

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Welcome back, everybody!

RLCS RAE Ratings are back for RLCS 2026, and the Kickoff LAN will serve as its first big test as top teams from North America and Europe will go head-to-head with the season just picking up.

Six teams from each region (based on their performance on Days 3-4 of Open #1) have made their way to Copenhagen, with the nature of single-event bracket luck meaning that there are some notable underdogs in attendance — and causing the absence of one major contender.

If you'd like a detailed explanation of what exactly RAE is, you can find one here.

2025 World Championship Recap

I said I was going to do this right after Worlds, but I got a bit distracted, so might as well go for it now.

The 2025 World Championship had its fair share of upsets sprinkled throughout, leading to RAE's 69% accuracy for the event.

The Play-In was fairly successful for the model, as it correctly predicted the quality of Team ROC and Virtus.pro, spare VP's final qualifying match versus MIBR.

The biggest culprits for RAE's tamer main event (besides for Wildcard's run to the top 6) were underwhelming performances by Twisted Minds, Team Vitality, and Dignitas. The former two also allowed for Ninjas in Pyjamas to sneak into playoffs, joining the aforementioned Aussies and Spacestation Gaming as the third team to make it to playoffs with less than a 30% chance of doing so.

NRG's win, though initially unexpected as the fifth-highest rated team in the event with only a 3.4% chance of coming out on top, only included a single upset: the win over Team Falcons in the grand finals.

Early season is always tough for RAE, but a new preseason ratings system has helped it to a respectable 79% mark in the online stages of Open #1 across all regions. We'll see what it will achieve across the small sample size of 17 matches (and only seven international ones) this weekend.

RAE Rankings — 2026 Kickoff LAN

12251225 17251725 1 Rating: 1939 1939 Karmine Corp LogoKarmine CorpAtow, juicy, Vatira 2 Rating: 1861 1861 Team Vitality LogoTeam VitalityExoTiiK, stizzy, zen 3 Rating: 1848 1848 Ninjas in Pyjamas LogoNinjas in Pyjamascrr, Joreuz, oaly. 4 Rating: 1844 1844 Gentle Mates LogoGentle MatesArchie, Oski, nass 5 Rating: 1831 1831 Shopify Rebellion LogoShopify RebellionLj, Firstkiller, kofyr 6 Rating: 1821 1821 Spacestation Gaming LogoSpacestation GamingChronic, diaz, reveal 7 Rating: 1748 1748 Gen.G Mobil1 Racing LogoGen.G Mobil1 Racingjustin., Majicbear, rise. 8 Rating: 1674 1674 FUT Esports LogoFUT EsportsCHEESE, frosty, sosa 9 Rating: 1618 1618 Manchester City Esports LogoManchester City EsportsAccro, ejby, TempoH 10 Rating: 1615 1615 NOVO Esports LogoNOVO EsportsAcroniK., GiuK, Nico 11 Rating: 1564 1564 [REDACTED] Logo[REDACTED]2Piece, tawk, Wahvey 12 Rating: 1389 1389 100X35 Esports Logo100X35 EsportsCrispy, simas, pzy

Despite being significantly weaker than last season (current rating of 1939 versus 2086 at the end of RLCS 2025), Karmine Corp sits as the best team in the tournament with a decent lead over the five-team chase pack. This is, of course, largely thanks to NRG's absence: the Americans would've been the favorites for the tournament had they not lost to [REDACTED] (and maybe even if they beat Gen.G in lowers) in the online stage of Open #1.

That chase pack consists of three EU teams (Vitality, Ninjas, and Gentle Mates) and the two best NA teams (Shopify and Spacestation). While the former three all sit just ahead of the NA rosters, the difference is mostly marginal, and the picture should be clearer by the time international play starts on Sunday.

Looking at Gen.G, then FUT, gets us to the end of RAE's LAN-quality teams. Man City, NOVO, and [REDACTED] sit firmly in the upset potential range. 100X35, after qualifying with wins over NA bubble teams Unreal Nightmare and Team Silenced, should just be happy to be here.

Are EU the clear favorites?

I don't think it's too controversial to say that Europe has more teams with a chance of winning the LAN, but for RAE to say that all four of their contenders are favored over NA's strong top two (including a Spacestation team whose already gained 51 rating points in the online segment of the event) definitely raises some eyebrows.

To be clear, Vitality and Gentle Mates, thanks to having to play each other for a chance at inter-regional play, both sit below the two North American contenders in the actual odds to win the LAN. The bracket, too, will afford a hefty advantage to whoever comes out on top in each regional, which benefits the top-heavy American delegation.

Barring any major upsets, the winner of the NA regional should jump up to 2nd or 3rd, while whoever gets second will probably still pass the loser of Gentle Mates-Vitality, at the very least. These rankings are still heavy based on how players finished in RLCS 2025; once they have time to develop, they might start to look more natural.

Once again, if NRG was here, it'd be a different story.

What's going on from spots 8-11?

FUT at the top? [REDACTED] on bottom? On the surface level, this doesn't seem quite right. RAE is fairly confident in both of these facts regardless.

First, it's important to keep in mind that, again, player ratings from RLCS 2025 are still weighed heavily. So the performances of FUT's players on competitive NA and APAC teams matters, just as much as [REDACTED] playing with a low-level main event players and two who squeaked into Worlds in the LCQ.

While the NRG win was very impressive, [REDACTED] still have a lot of ground to make up. FUT upsetting Gen.G online also helps them stay ahead of the pack.

There's a lot less consensus on exactly how good NOVO and Man City are, but both teams took Karmine to Champions Field online and have a chance to make a statement against a good-but-beatable NiP team if they beat the other. Look out for one of these teams (in my opinion, Man City) to play at a higher level than you might expect.

Notable absences: Looking at the rest of the world

Besides for NRG, who've actually dropped to fourth (more on that in a second) in the world rankings, the Kickoff LAN will be missing contenders from the other five regions, most notably MENA.

I'll touch on FURIA for a second — they had a decent Open #1, overcoming scares versus Amethyst and Team Secret to take the regional win. They ended last season pretty poorly, though, and it'll likely take international play for them to have a chance to re-enter the contenders conversation, or maybe even the top 8.

I also want to draw attention to MIBR, who took a trio of wins over strong SAM teams in Aelix, Amethyst, and Team Secret (that one was a sweep). Keep an eye on them for now.

Alright, now onto the Middle East.

RAE thinks Falcons are the top team in the world. They thought they were as much (barely) at the end of RLCS 2025, and with Karmine's best player moving onto the roster, they now sit over 60 points clear of the Frenchmen for RAE's World #1.

That is, of course, all after losing the first Open to Twisted Minds, whose Game 6 win propelled them up to 3rd (above NRG). If Karmine has a poor event, MENA could end up holding the top two spots in RAE's eyes. That's while still being considered only the third-best region — while EU and NA have finally begun to deconsolidate talent at the top, MENA has continued to filter their top talent to their top teams.

Of course, Boston could tell us that both Falcons and Twisted could have inflated ratings, but for now MENA's top two are the best regional duo in the world.

RAE Odds — 2026 Kickoff LAN

Team 1st Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top 8 Win Regional
  Karmine Corp  38.6%  56.7%  82.5%  91.6%  ✓  44.3%
  Ninjas in Pyjamas  20.6%  46.7%  84.7%  97.1%  ✓  33.3%
  Spacestation Gaming  11.3%  26.7%  59.3%  78.7%  ✓  38.5%
  Shopify Rebellion  11.0%  25.4%  52.5%  71.7%  74.3%  35.8%
  Team Vitality  8.2%  15.5%  32.5%  41.7%  52.9%  11.4%
  Gentle Mates  6.1%  12.3%  27.2%  35.9%  47.1%  9.0%
  Gen.G Mobil1 Racing  3.2%  10.2%  30.6%  51.5%  92.2%  17.0%
  FUT Esports  <1%  2.5%  9.3%  21.9%  25.8%  5.4%
  Manchester City Esports  <1%  1.4%  6.3%  31.0%  50.5%  1.1%
  NOVO Esports  <1%  1.3%  6.0%  30.1%  49.5%  1.0%
  [REDACTED]  <1%  1.3%  9.1%  48.3%  ✓  3.3%
  100X35 Esports  <1%  <1%  <1%  <1%  7.8%  <1%

Karmine are the slight favorites for the event, with Ninjas, courtesy of a strong online performance and subsequent bye to the semifinals, sitting right behind them. Spacestation, Shopify, Vitality, and Gentle Mates all have at least a 5% chance of winning, while Gen.G sits with an outside shot.

No other team has more than a 1% chance to win.

Here are the odds for each region to win the Kickoff LAN and secure a 5th seed for Boston:

  • EU: 73.9%
  • NA: 26.1%

There will be no event hub for the Kickoff LAN; stay tuned to my Twitter for updates on odds. The ratings will be updated live on the usual RAE Rankings page.

RAE predicts Karmine Corp, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Team Vitality, Manchester City Esports Spacestation Gaming, Shopify Rebellion, Gen.G Mobil1 Racing, and [REDACTED] to make it through to Sunday.

With it not yet being clear what EU and NA will look like this season, Friday and Saturday should give us a good picture of who the favorites in each region will be, while Sunday teases us with a bit of international action prior to the rest of Split 1 taking place in 2026.

Keep your eyes on Man City vs NOVO on Friday; that should be a great match to watch with a chance to play against [REDACTED] in all likelihood in international play.

RLCS 2026 RAE Prediction Accuracy: 79%