Not affiliated with Epic Games, Psyonix, BLAST, or Rocket League.

RAE Predictions — 2026 World Championship

Who will claim the top prize of RLCS 2026?

September 12, 2026

The RLCS season has once again completed its trip around the calendar as 20 teams have touched down in Fort Worth to fight for the World Championship trophy. In a season that has been run by both chaos and order, the 60 players set to take the pitch next week will have the fate of the Rocket League world in their hands.

If you'd like a detailed explanation of what exactly RAE is, you can find one here.

LCQ and EWC Recap

The LCQs were a very mixed bag for the model, with high scores in SAM and MENA but below-average (or worse) performances in NA and EU.

RAE only missed two series in the entirety of the SAM LCQ: NuTorious' upset over Plot Twist in the first series of the day and the grand finals upset of Bigodes over BS+COMPETITION; the end result was an accuracy of 93% in the region. MENA was similarly predictable, as the model ran perfect after a handful of upsets in the first round, climbing to 88% after R8's victory over DOS in the grand finals.

North America was a bit harder to hit the mark on — Fortnite Flick did plenty of damage on their own, and the results of both West Coast Warriors and NTX Esports stumped RAE at times. Incorrectly predicting Dignitas to be the second-best team in the event over Gen.G also stands out as a miss for the model (which ultimately scored 72% across the event).

Then, of course, there's EU. Geekay Esports and NOVO Esports crashing out on Day 1 set the model off on poor footing, and the problems only continued from there, as deep runs by EmporX Esports and No Balls Just Chase (accompanied by questionable losses from Kaydop Corp and Magnolia) resulted in RAE only managing to claw its way to a 62% mark when all was said and done.

Combine these four tallies with a correct prediction of Wildcard over PWR in the OCE Tiebreaker, and RAE totaled a score of 79% across the LCQs, just about matching its online average in 2025.

EWC's own LCQ provided some much-needed international data to the model, though it served as more of a learning experience than anything else. MENA skyrocketed throughout both the LCQ (thanks to Team Stallions' deep run) and the main event (via Team Falcons' victory) to the tune of +72 region rating (the highest single-event jump for any region ever) to move MENA to 1525 as a whole. Even if it might be a bit inflated from two historic runs, that's still just 19 behind North America, for what it's worth — the gap has been narrowed by over 90 points since the end of Major 1.

Virtus.pro's romp through the lower bracket (after being dropped by Volare at the start of the final day) and Manchester City's underperformance both dropped the model's accuracy, as well as PCS Stride (aka Mate y Tapa) following up on their EU LCQ win with another strong run, something the model didn't fully buy into heading into the EWC.

The main event was just as big of a struggle, as unexpected runs by Ninjas in Pyjamas and NRG Esports in groups, then Team Falcons in playoffs, all shocked RAE.

Ultimately, the final tally for the model was a 64% rate across all of EWC, with a 68%-61% split between the LCQ and main event. The LCQ tally is fairly solid given the number of untested international matchups the model had to predict; the main event was chaotic enough that a 61% mark can only mean so much.

RAE Rankings — 2026 World Championship

Once again, RAE ranks the EWC victors — this time Team Falcons — as the world's top team. Vitality, surprisingly, checks in at second (more on that later), while the rest of the top eight (gradually descending in rating) is comprised of Twisted Minds, Gentle Mates, Karmine Corp, Spacestation, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and Shopify Rebellion.

R8 Esports, NRG, FURIA, and FUT form a solid middle cluster, with the bottom eight teams forming another four tiers: Virtus.pro/MIBR/Man City, Wildcard/Mate y Tapa, TSM/Bigodes, and all by their lonesome are Five Fears.

EWC continues to have an outsized impact on the pre-Worlds rankings: aside from Falcons rising to first, Karmine have dropped from #1 to #5 after scraping past R8 and Vitality and getting swept by SSG, Falcons, and NIP.

There is one point in these rankings that is unusual, which is that North America actually stands with the best fifth-ranked team between it and Europe (Virtus.pro), thanks to Man City's poor showing at the EWC LCQ and Mate y Tapa laying claim to the EU LCQ spot instead of one of the three rosters that have shown better results over the course of the season (Geekay, KDC, NOVO). Cold comfort for NA fans.

Previewing the Play-in

Unlike in 2025, there are closer to four-and-a-half teams pushing to qualify out of the Play-in than five, depending on how you classify Mate y Tapa.

Of course, Falcons are overwhelming favorites to escape the first day of the tournament, and while their bracket path isn't particularly friendly, R8's talent (9th best in the world, according to the model) should be enough for them to beat up on a very weak lower bracket team after losing to Falcons in the upper qualifer match.

FUT is next up on the Play-in power rankings after both MENA teams, and similar to R8, they'll be favored to run through the lower bracket after losing to Falcons, though the likely matchup against Mate y Tapa isn't going to be as easy for them as R8's expected opponent (Bigodes).

Virtus.pro are the favorites for the fourth spot out of the Play-in, as their top seed in the stage has allowed them to dodge the other three heavy hitters and coast off of winnable matches against Bigodes and likely Mate y Tapa to advance through the upper bracket — the latter being a team who VP swept in the EWC LCQ in August. MYT will be looking to poach the upper bracket spot, a much preferable path for them compared to having to likely face FUT in lowers with a loss.

Of the other three participants, TSM are the most likely to send the whole bracket spiraling out of control with an upset over R8 in round one or an early elimination of FUT in lowers. If their victory over NRG in Paris is anything to go by, they certainly have that type of performance in them.

As for Bigodes and Five Fears, their paths are probable to collide after respective losses to Virtus.pro and Mate y Tapa in round one, but the winner of that lower bracket matchup has a tall task to face in the form of R8 waiting for them in the lower qualifier match. It's going to have to be a turn-back-the-clock performance for DRUFINHO to make an upset happen.

How is Vitality in second?

This is a pick where both my personal biases and the model's read of the pro scene agree, so I have a lot to say in defense of this ranking.

The single most important thing to keep in mind with respect to Vitality is that Rocket League is inherently highly matchup-based. Even if you are better than another team on paper and have had better results than them, you can still be dominated head-to-head if your playstyle and/or mental approach doesn't work against that specific team.

Obviously, I'm talking about Karmine Corp.

The big thing with Vitality, though, is that outside of those KC matches, all they do is win, often by large margins.

Vitality has only lost to Karmine (in close series, mind you) and Gentle Mates (in the nass legacy series) at RLCS Majors and EWC this season. Their wins include SSG (twice), Twisted Minds, Falcons, NRG, NIP, and even Karmine themselves. Combine that with a solid online form that sees this team dominate weaker opponents while only ever taking losses in close series, and you have a team that will sit very high on RAE's power rankings.

Look, of course their terrible record against Karmine is a massive black eye for this squad. However, your matchup against one team doesn't define who you are in the grand scheme of the RLCS, and it doesn't mean you have to be power ranked behind them, either. Vitality has proven to have the level to take down every top team in the world, and only one team has been able to consistently stop them. When essentially every top squad suffered upset losses besides for Falcons and SSG, is it that ridiculous to say that one that didn't is fairly likely to win it all? I don't think so, and RAE doesn't either.

Still, they better hope that they don't run into Karmine again. Or that they suddenly collapse and get 12th for the third year in a row. You just never know with these guys.

Fine, we can talk about North America again

It's difficult to say whether RLCS' most cryptic region is in a better or worse position heading into the World Championship than it was last year. On one hand, the region now has more than just NRG in a spot to contend for LAN finals, collected the same amount of LAN Top 4s heading into Worlds as it did last year, and is no longer sending dead weight in its 4th and 5th seeds. On the other, NRG themselves, the only North American team that has shown the ability to actually win RLCS LANs since 2023, have completely fallen off and are a far cry from the contenders conversation. And even if their replacements at the top of the region are just as good in theory, the fact that none of those players have shown the "it" factor needed to come out on top is a terrifying prospect as an NA fan.

What's left is a region with a handful of teams that could theoretically challenge for the Worlds title but would each be at least slight underdogs against any of the top five teams in the world (FLCN, VIT, TM, GM8, KC). The feeling of the walls closing in thanks to MENA's continued progression as a region also adds to the pressure mounting on NA's backs.

NRG is certainly going to be interesting to watch — no Worlds-winning team has been dropped out of the upper bracket (or upper bracket equivalent) since Season 6 C9 or Season 7 Vitality, depending on how you define the term, so if the defending champions come out of the gate hot (which they will need to do in what will probably be the group of death), then NA might not be doomed, after all.

Both Shopify Rebellion and Spacestation Gaming can make at least some noise, and both should be in a solid position to claim a spot in the top eight at the very least after the group stage concludes. Both of them have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but whether each of their peaks at Paris and EWC, respectively, can be classified as LAN-winning-quality is harder to say. SSG has more variance, as they've shown both the ability to punch up significantly (sweeping KC at EWC) and falter just as much (struggling heavily with MIBR more than once). Shopify should present a more consistent front, as they've been about 6th-8th in the world for essentially the entire season.

FUT occupies a rare spot for an NA team as a squad that has been somewhat punching up compared to their talent level and should be consistent enough to take down mid-level teams that are struggling. The roster has plenty of LAN experience, and any matchup that isn't against the top five should be a winnable matchup for them. It's hard to believe they can actually take that next step to beat those top teams instead of playing them close and choking, but they could sneak into the top eight with the right bracket.

Virtus.pro are, unsurprisingly, a major wild card. If they bring back the form they showed in Split 1 and online, they could return to beating teams like NIP and give some contenders a run for their money. If they show something closer to the form they had at times in Boston and during Split 2, a Play-in exit isn't out of the question. The EWC LCQ showed us something in between, with VP notching some quality wins (over Man City and MYT) but losing series that they should still be taking (against Volare and Stallions). A lot of this variance will depend on Tawk's performance on the day, but plenty more will be based on how well Wahvey fills his glue roll. They're going to be a fun watch, that's for sure.

TL;DR, NRG is washed, Shopify and SSG need to overperform, and FUT and VP are frisky but ultimately should bow out to better competition even if they play up to their potential.

Anyways, NRG is going back-to-back. Their odds last year were worse than Shopify's are right now, for the record.

RAE Odds — 2026 World Championship

Team	1st	Top 2	Top 4	Top 6	Top 8	Top 12	Top 16	Top 18
Team Falcons	26.4%	41.3%	62.3%	73.9%	82.1%	90.6%	95.4%	98.3%
Team Vitality	21.2%	36.7%	60.4%	74.7%	85.4%	96.1%	✓	✓
Twisted Minds	14.4%	28.7%	53.4%	68.6%	79.8%	94.2%	✓	✓
Gentle Mates	11.7%	23.9%	45.0%	63.2%	78.1%	94.7%	✓	✓
Karmine Corp	8.3%	18.7%	38.3%	56.7%	71.4%	89.2%	✓	✓
Spacestation Gaming	5.9%	14.3%	31.6%	50.0%	66.0%	86.7%	✓	✓
Ninjas in Pyjamas	4.9%	12.6%	30.3%	46.8%	61.4%	86.2%	✓	✓
Shopify Rebellion	4.0%	11.1%	28.8%	47.0%	64.6%	90.3%	✓	✓
NRG Esports	<1%	3.5%	12.6%	26.2%	41.3%	74.2%	✓	✓
R8 Esports	<1%	3.2%	10.6%	21.8%	35.0%	57.1%	77.9%	91.5%
FURIA Esports	<1%	2.4%	9.3%	20.5%	33.7%	67.4%	✓	✓
FUT Esports	<1%	1.1%	4.5%	10.3%	17.2%	37.1%	58.6%	78.4%
Virtus.pro	<1%	<1%	3.7%	10.2%	21.2%	50.0%	73.2%	97.0%
MIBR	<1%	<1%	3.6%	11.1%	21.9%	50.6%	✓	✓
Manchester City Esports	<1%	<1%	4.0%	11.7%	23.0%	60.9%	✓	✓
Wildcard	<1%	<1%	<1%	3.9%	10.3%	39.3%	✓	✓
Mate y Tapa	<1%	<1%	<1%	2.8%	5.9%	23.2%	52.3%	92.9%
Bigodes	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1.0%	6.8%	21.8%	73.7%
TSM	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4.6%	15.3%	31.8%
Five Fears	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	5.4%	36.4%

After their dominant EWC victory, Team Falcons are tentative favorites, despite having to qualify through both the LCQ and the likely group of death. Team Vitality aren't too far behind, with Twisted Minds and Gentle Mates both with greater than 10% odds to lift the Worlds trophy.

Karmine Corp, Spacestation Gaming, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and Shopify Rebellion round out both the world top eight and the group of teams with a reasonable shot to win the tournament.

Here are the odds for each region to win the RLCS 2026 World Championship:

EU: 46.2%
MENA: 41.8%
NA: 11.3%
SAM: 0.7%
OCE: <0.1%
APAC: <0.1%
SSA: <0.1%

RAE 2026 Worlds Hub

The RAE 2026 Worlds Hub is officially online and will update with live ratings and event odds as the event progresses.

RAE predicts Virtus.pro, Team Falcons, R8 Esports, and FUT Esports to make it through the Play-In.

Here's RAE's predicted top 12:

Through Uppers: Team Vitality, Team Falcons, Twisted Minds, Karmine Corp*
Through Lowers: Gentle Mates*, Shopify Rebellion, Spacestation Gaming, Ninjas in Pyjamas, NRG Esports, FURIA Esports, Manchester City Esports, R8 Esports

*While Gentle Mates have higher odds to make Top 6 than Karmine, Mates will likely be grouped with Vitality, while Karmine's top competition will be SSG.

Though the specifics will obviously depend on how the Play-in shakes out, if things go as or near expected, then it's likely that we'll see two groups (the ones with TWIS-NIP and NRG-SR-FLCN) stand stronger than the other two, tilting the resulting playoff bracket substantially.

Thanks once again for another year of support and reading. These ratings helped me get into college, and I'm writing this from my dorm room — something I definitely didn't imagine myself doing when I made my first ratings back in 2022. Here's to another year of RAE ratings and a great World Championship.

Pyroblocks