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RAE Predictions — 2026 Paris Major

Who will win the biggest Major in RLCS history?

May 17, 2026

This article was written in affiliation with ShiftRLE. It may differ somewhat from the style and content of other articles.

The RLCS RAE (Region-Adjusted Elo) Rating system is a predictive model for professional Rocket League, using updating team ratings to generate probabilities for matches, teams, and tournaments. You can read more about it here.

The RLCS 2026 regular season has reached its most crucial juncture yet: the Paris Major.

16 teams are set to square up for worlds spots, the lion's share of the $354 thousand prize pool, and a chance at playing in front of the largest crowd in RLCS history.

With Split 2 seeing regional orders turned upside down around the world, the LAN stage will stand as the most important test yet for offline rookies and veteran rosters alike, each seeking to prove their mettle with questions aplenty surrounding the world's best teams.

RAE Rankings — 2026 Paris Major

With powerhouse rosters struggling throughout the Split (just ask the notably absent Team Falcons), only Team Vitality and Gentle Mates have escaped largely unscathed, with the Boston Major champions narrowly edging out the Open 4 and Open 6 winners in the model's eyes.

The next tier of teams (if you can make a distinction with how close they each are) consists of Karmine Corp, who failed to win a regional for only the second split since the 22-23 season, NRG Esports, who sleepwalked through Opens 4 and 5 before finally collecting an Open 6 victory, and Twisted Minds, who enter Paris in a nice run of form after an early exit in Open 4.

The rest of the top eight is rounded out by NA's next-best rosters in Spacestation Gaming (led by an unretired Zachary "zach" Stone) and Shopify Rebellion, each of whom won a regional, as well as Ninjas in Pyjamas, who despite not claiming a title took series victories over Vitality and Karmine (twice).

The typical suspects make up the rest of the rankings: both SAM teams, the bottom-seeded NA and EU squads, an unproven R8 Esports, and the OCE, APAC, and SSA representatives. RAE remains strangley high on FURIA as they limp into the Group of Death off of back-to-back losses to MIBR.

Will an underdog finally win a LAN?

The last time a true non-favorite took a LAN title was with Gentle Mates in 2024. If you can accept that Mates and Vitality aren't overwhelming favorites this time around, then someone else finally claiming a title could be in the cards.

One titan of the game was already taken out in regionals: Falcons. Besides for Mates and Vitality, most people would classify Karmine (downtrodden as they have been) and NRG as the top dogs in Paris. The four combine for a 75% chance to win the Major, which seems high, but is much lower than the combined odds for the top four before Boston (84%), Lyon (91%), and Raleigh (85%).

The better odds for the second-tier teams are aided, primarily, by weak performances by NRG and Karmine, which has breathed life into SSG, SR, and NIP squads that underwhelmed in Boston. Combine that with the strong standing of a Twisted Minds roster thats only dropped one series in the Top 16 since Open 4, and you have a list of squads who have the potential to make some boys if the top teams falter like they each have this split.

There's really just one problem: three of these teams are in the same group. And the one that isn't is in the Group of Death. At the very least, whoever tops Group C will be able to take an early shot at an NRG roster that tends to underperform in their upper bracket matches. All it'll take is one or two upsets to thrust one of these teams into contender status.

Let's talk about R8 Esports

R8 are the community's latest prediction darlings, with seemingly everyone and their mother having them escaping the Group of Death without too much difficulty and making it at least to the Top 8. For me, it's reminiscent of how [REDACTED] were treated prior to Boston, and we all know how that one went.

I omitted R8 from the previous section, despite them dominating pretty much every MENA team besides for Twisted in the online split. Their lower rating isn't because the model is taking too long to adjust — they're actually in the same spot ratings-wise that they were after Open 4. The roster simply just treaded water in both Open 5 and Open 6, dropping plenty of stray games to teams like DOS, Team Stallions, and Rafha Esports while getting soundly beaten by Twisted, twice.

If R8 are supposed to have the potential to be as dominant as Falcons have been on LAN before just because the young roster usurped them in one online split, RAE isn't buying it. Two-thirds of this roster placed 13th-16th in Lyon, and though Mohammad "M7md" Almutairi has served as a substantial upgrade over Mohammed Zaid "Twiz" Al-Saeed, they're still extremely untested and in the toughest group at the Major.

If the team can make it out of Group D, then their Top 8 odds are reasonable. Manchester City Esports or MIBR, most likely, will await the runners-up in Group D — every team in the Group of Death would be favored over the two, including R8. Still, it's a serious uphill battle to get out of the group in the first place. Just how uphill? Well...

The Group of Death, Part II

The average rating of Group D this time around is "just" 1855, compared to 1887 in Boston's Group C, so the prospects for the four teams trying to survive to Playoffs are at least a little better than they were at the first Major. Add onto that the fact that three teams make it out at the second Major and that the group has a wildcard in R8 and whatever FURIA decides to get up to, and it's not nearly as daunting as Boston's nightmare was for TM and SSG.

Even with all of that, besides for Gentle Mates (whose odds of getting eliminated are still over 4x higher than those of NRG in the group of sunshine and rainbows), nobody can really call themselves safe. While Group C is the group with the most parity among the top 3, Group D clearly has the most among the bottom 3, with SSG (again finding themselves in the Group of Death), FURIA, and R8 all sitting between a 21% and 41% chance of getting eliminated early.

RAE's favoring of FURIA and dislike of R8 relative to community evaluations means that things might be a bit more skewed in reality, giving SSG higher odds of getting out and making it a two-way dogfight between the two minor region teams for the last playoff spot. It's still an absolutely brutal draw for all four teams involved, but at least unlike in Boston they will get rewarded by playing teams out of The Easy Group™ instead of the other strongest one.

Here's a basic comparison of the four groups at the Paris Major:

Group	Average RAE Rating	Comparable Team	Avg. World RAE Ranking	GoD Rating
Group A	1828	NIP	8.50	4.51
Group B	1677	WC	18.75	1.04
Group C	1757	FUT	14.00	2.80
Group D	1855	FLCN	7.25	8.70

RAE Odds — 2026 Paris Major

Team	Top 1	Top 2	Top 4	Top 6	Top 8	Top 12
Gentle Mates	27.7%	43.8%	64.3%	76.4%	86.8%	93.3%
Team Vitality	27.0%	42.9%	64.0%	76.0%	84.7%	95.6%
NRG Esports	11.2%	25.4%	53.6%	72.5%	82.3%	98.5%
Karmine Corp	9.2%	19.2%	37.7%	53.7%	68.1%	90.4%
Twisted Minds	7.4%	17.7%	39.3%	57.0%	70.9%	95.1%
Shopify Rebellion	4.9%	12.9%	31.7%	49.2%	64.8%	94.0%
Ninjas in Pyjamas	4.0%	11.1%	28.7%	46.1%	62.1%	93.3%
Spacestation Gaming	3.9%	10.1%	23.1%	39.0%	58.7%	77.7%
FURIA Esports	1.9%	5.8%	15.1%	29.2%	48.1%	69.4%
R8 Esports	<1%	2.9%	9.0%	20.2%	37.0%	59.6%
Manchester City Esports	<1%	2.8%	11.9%	26.9%	43.2%	92.8%
MIBR	<1%	2.7%	11.6%	26.6%	42.8%	92.7%
FUT Esports	<1%	2.3%	7.6%	18.1%	31.6%	67.7%
Wildcard	<1%	<1%	2.3%	7.5%	15.6%	46.3%
TSM	<1%	<1%	<1%	1.0%	2.2%	17.6%
Five Fears	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1.1%	16.1%

Gentle Mates and Team Vitality are the clear two most-favored teams to win, but the former's 27.7% is the lowest odds for a LAN favorite since at least the RLCS 2024 London Major.

NRG's odds are once again buoyed by an easy groups, with Karmine right behind them. Twisted are in a clear fifth place ahead of Shopify, NiP, and SSG. FURIA in ninth are the only other team with a >1% chance of winning the Paris Major.

Here are the odds for each region to win the major:

EU: 68.5%
NA: 20.7%
MENA: 8.2%
SAM: 2.5%
OCE: 0.1%
APAC: <0.1%
SSA: <0.1%

RAE Group Stage Odds — 2026 Paris Major

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Team Vitality	54.4%	30.5%	10.7%	4.4%
Karmine Corp	31.6%	38.9%	19.9%	9.5%
FUT Esports	9.5%	19.7%	38.5%	32.3%
Wildcard	4.4%	10.9%	30.9%	53.8%

NRG Esports	60.2%	27.2%	11.1%	1.6%
Manchester City Esports	19.7%	35.3%	37.8%	7.2%
MIBR	19.6%	35.5%	37.7%	7.3%
Five Fears	<1%	2.0%	13.4%	84.0%

Twisted Minds	38.5%	32.5%	24.2%	4.8%
Shopify Rebellion	31.5%	32.6%	29.9%	6.0%
Ninjas in Pyjamas	29.1%	32.6%	31.6%	6.7%
TSM	<1%	2.3%	14.3%	82.4%

Gentle Mates	54.3%	27.4%	11.6%	6.7%
Spacestation Gaming	20.5%	29.9%	27.3%	22.4%
FURIA Esports	14.9%	24.0%	30.5%	30.6%
R8 Esports	10.4%	18.8%	30.5%	40.4%

Group A should belong to one of VIT and KC, with the former being 50% favorites. FUT and Wildcard are mostly battling it out for third place, though each does have an outside shot at 2nd if KC falters. The best parallel is Boston's Group D, which saw Shopify Rebellion trying to upset Gentle Mates while fending off MIBR from below. For Wildcard, making it to Playoffs will be even more crucial with their Worlds spot and the region's LCQ Slot on the line.

Group B is very simple. NRG are far-and-away favorites to top it, with Five Fears sporting an over 80% chance of coming in last. The battle for second will be fought between Man City and MIBR, rated as nearly even by RAE heading into the event.

Group C's odds also look fairly simple, but the outcome will be much more competitive. While TSM's early exit is all but guaranteed with three Top 8-caliber teams to play against, Twisted, Shopify, and NiP are all extremely close in rating, with the MENA squad ahead by the slimmest of margins. Avoiding third will be crucial here, as that finisher will have to play the second-place team from Group A — likely one of Vitality and Karmine.

Group D's line favors Gentle Mates, but below them, nobody is very safe. Spacestation are given at least a little bit of breathing room by the model (with a 78% chance to advance to the Top 12); it favors FURIA somewhat over R8, though both teams have an equal chance of placing third. It's going to be anyone's game, and the deciding factor could be game differential if the three lower teams each take one series off of another. It may even come down to how close each team can play Gentle Mates, if the margins get especially thin.

RAE Worlds Odds — 2026 Paris Major

Team	Worlds
Virtus.pro	97.7%
FUT Esports	2.3%

Team Falcons	97.1%
R8 Esports	2.9%

Wildcard	79.6%
PWR	20.4%

In the battle for North America's final Worlds spot, FUT have a steep hill to climb, requiring a Top 2 to eke out a direct qualification over Virtus.pro. RAE gives them just over a 2% chance of doing so.

Despite their strong split, R8, too, need a Top 2 to advance directly to Worlds over Team Falcons. The roster's forfeiture of their Open 1 points to acquire M7md and their loss in the grand finals of Open 6 have both led to a just under 3% chance of qualifying.

The challenger fares much better over in OCE, with Paris-qualifying Wildcard, who saved their season in dramatic fashion over PWR in the final series of the OCE regular season, needing just to advance out of Group A to clinch a Worlds spot (which they have a 46% chance of doing). If they don't then we'll see the first ever Worlds tiebreaker between the two OCE squads; Wildcard would be favored about 60-40 in that scenario.

RAE LCQ Region Slot Odds — 2026 Paris Major

Region	LCQ Slot
EU	>99%
MENA	>99%
NA	>99%
SAM	62.3%
OCE	36.9%
APAC	<1%
SSA	<1%

Last but not least is the battle for each region's LCQ Slot, which PWR, FURIA, and MIBR made interesting in Boston by virtue of OCE placing ahead of SAM on average.

EU, MENA, and NA still technically haven't clinched yet; however, each have a >99% chance of doing so, and in the case of EU, they clinched a spot in each one of the 1,000,000 simulations ran. All eyes, as we expect, will be on OCE and SAM.

Despite OCE's lead, the odds favor SAM for one simple reason: MIBR is in a group with Five Fears. If Wildcard finish last, even if FURIA doesn't make it out of groups and MIBR is immediately eliminated from playoffs, SAM will clinch that last LCQ Slot by virtue of having the better performance at the most recent event.

If Wildcard make it out of groups, then things get more interesting. OCE's point total gets to 11 with a Top 12 finish, meaning that FURIA and MIBR would require an average of 7 (equivalent to a Top 8 and a Top 12) to get the spot, something that is substantially less likely considering the region's poor form in recent LAN events.

Broadly, wherever Wildcard finish, one SAM team has to equal them while the other has to outdo them by one placement. Given both regions' relative weakness, it's likely that just one upset could get either their additional spot.

I'll also add that APAC and SSA are far from out of this conversation, at least in terms of the standings — a Top 6 would likely clinch an LCQ Slot for either, with a Top 8 still giving them decent odds. Obviously, though, that's easier said than done.

RAE Paris Major Hub

The RAE Paris Major Hub is officially online and will update with live ratings and event odds as the event progresses.

To summarize, here's RAE's predicted top 12 (group winners bolded):

Group A: Team Vitality, Karmine Corp, FUT Esports
Group B: NRG Esports, Manchester City Esports, MIBR
Group C: Twisted Minds, Shopify Rebellion, Ninjas in Pyjamas
Group D: Gentle Mates, Spacestation Gaming, FURIA Esports

RLCS 2026 has quickly evolved into a season with some of the most parity in the competition's history — and thankfully, that has translated to LAN, too. The Paris Major will serve as the perfect backdrop for the esport, which has turned truly global, to shine on the world stage.

With the favorites in tenuous form and underdogs aplenty waiting for their chance in the spotlight, no team will be safe from the fires of elimination from the moment the tournament kicks off. Time will tell if Paris will crown age-old champions as winners once again or represent the rise of the next generation of the esport's upper echelon.

Pyroblocks