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RAE Predictions — 2026 Boston Major
Who will come out on top in Boston?
After a first split with twists and turns aplenty, it's time for top teams from around the world to assemble in Boston to crown our first LAN champion of 2025.
If you'd like a detailed explanation of what exactly RAE is, you can find one here.
RAE v1.1
The RAE model updated to 2026 v1.1 last week, making some slight changes to the K-Scores to weight early events more. Read more about it on the methodology page, linked above.
NA Recap
With just North America on the docket last week, RAE scored an accuracy of 76% (22/29), dropping its Open #3 total to just a hair under 80%.
Otherwise,
With the regionals done and dusted, here is how well RAE predicted in each region this split:
NA : 77%EU : 78%SAM : 79%MENA : 81%OCE : 78%APAC : 80%SSA : 75%
It's been a tough split across the board for RAE, as outside of the
RAE Rankings — 2026 Boston Major
Thanks to their best-in-the-world talent and good-for-par Split 1,
The remaining NA and EU teams, as well as
How are [REDACTED] so low?
Unfortunately, there's not much explaining away to do about North America's rankings as a whole, so you'll have to settle for an explanation about one specific team.
I either have to tune the K-Scores up to the point where the rankings become much too reactive to be accurate event-to-event, or they're too low such that they aren't bringing a team like
To be perfectly clear, I think that they're better than where they're at; probably somewhere in the 6-8 range. Hopefully RAE can catch up.
Why is Vitality ranked 6th?
...and on the flipside of team rankings being out of place are
What makes
- 1-4 vs
NIP in Open 1 (-30) - 1-4 vs
Karmine in Open 1 (-17) - 1-3 vs
SSG at the Kickoff LAN (-44) - 3-4 vs
Geekay in Open 2 (-20) - 1-3 vs
Karmine in Open 3 (-6) - 2-4 vs
Karmine in Open 3 (-2)
So, six losses, three to
Unless they crash and burn, this likely isn't going to change after the Major. Thanks to being placed in a group with
Who's going to make it out of the Group of Death?
Thanks to some unfortunate seeding and their specific interpretation of the RLCS seeding rules, BLAST has blessed us with Group C, which has teams ranked #2, #5, #6, and #7 in the world. To put into context how unbalanced these groups are, if you took the average rating for all teams in Group C and put it against the average rating for all teams in Group A, it'd be like putting
As you might expect, RAE thinks that teams ranked #2 and #5 (
The outlook doesn't get too much rosier for whoever makes it out, either, as both teams that advance out of Group B will play teams that advance out of Group C. So enjoy
All in all, even if
RAE Odds — 2026 Boston Major
| Team | Top 1 | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top 8 | Top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Team Falcons |
33.8% | 50.9% | 72.6% | 81.6% | 89.0% | 96.3% |
 Karmine Corp |
21.2% | 36.0% | 56.6% | 67.2% | 75.1% | 90.1% |
 NRG Esports |
18.8% | 39.2% | 69.9% | 88.6% | 95.4% | >99% |
 Gentle Mates |
10.2% | 25.1% | 52.0% | 75.9% | 85.1% | 96.8% |
 Twisted Minds |
4.9% | 11.5% | 26.5% | 37.9% | 49.2% | 76.1% |
 Team Vitality |
3.1% | 8.0% | 20.3% | 31.0% | 42.0% | 70.7% |
 Shopify Rebellion |
2.5% | 8.9% | 26.9% | 53.1% | 69.5% | 92.7% |
 Spacestation Gaming |
1.8% | 5.2% | 14.6% | 23.8% | 33.7% | 63.2% |
 Ninjas in Pyjamas |
1.1% | 4.9% | 19.5% | 46.5% | 76.8% | 97.2% |
 FURIA Esports |
1.1% | 3.7% | 12.5% | 22.7% | 41.7% | 71.9% |
 [REDACTED] |
<1% | 3.0% | 10.7% | 20.0% | 37.7% | 69.0% |
 Geekay Esports |
<1% | 2.0% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 31.6% | 62.8% |
 MIBR |
<1% | 1.6% | 8.2% | 24.2% | 38.7% | 81.8% |
 PWR |
<1% | <1% | 1.6% | 8.8% | 25.7% | 85.1% |
 Project Delacruz |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 28.7% |
 Five Fears |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2.1% | 18.1% |
Here are the odds for each region to win the major:
MENA : 38.7%EU : 36.0%NA : 23.9%SAM : 1.4%OCE : <0.1%APAC : <0.1%SSA : <0.1%
RAE Group Stage Odds — 2026 Boston Major
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG Esports |
72.0% | 23.4% | 4.2% | <1% |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas |
23.1% | 53.7% | 20.5% | 2.8% |
| PWR |
4.6% | 21.1% | 59.4% | 14.9% |
| Five Fears |
<1% | 1.8% | 16.0% | 81.9% |
| Team Falcons |
65.5% | 23.5% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| FURIA Esports |
13.2% | 28.6% | 30.2% | 28.1% |
| [REDACTED] |
11.8% | 25.8% | 31.3% | 31.1% |
| Geekay Esports |
9.6% | 22.1% | 31.2% | 37.1% |
| Karmine Corp |
46.6% | 28.5% | 15.0% | 9.9% |
| Twisted Minds |
22.0% | 27.1% | 26.9% | 24.0% |
| Team Vitality |
17.7% | 24.4% | 28.6% | 29.3% |
| Spacestation Gaming |
13.7% | 20.0% | 29.4% | 36.8% |
| Gentle Mates |
54.8% | 30.3% | 11.7% | 3.2% |
| Shopify Rebellion |
30.3% | 39.2% | 23.2% | 7.3% |
| MIBR |
13.1% | 25.6% | 43.1% | 18.3% |
| Project Delacruz |
1.7% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 71.3% |
Group A has a clearly set order:
Group B has a clear favorite in
Group C's kiss of death will likely find two of
Group D sees
RAE Boston Major Hub
The RAE Boston Major Hub is officially online and will update with live ratings and event odds as the event progresses.
To summarize, here's RAE's predicted top 8:
- Group A:
NRG Esports ,Ninjas in Pyjamas - Group B:
Team Falcons ,FURIA Esports - Group C:
Karmine Corp ,Twisted Minds - Group D:
Gentle Mates ,Shopify Rebellion
While Group A is likely going to be a snoozefest, Group D could have some sneaky intrigue. Group B is going to be razor-thin between the contending teams (and
Though there is certainly still a "contenders" class, this major could very well be the most wide-open LAN we've had in a while. Only a few teams have set themselves apart at the top, and they're either untested, inconsistent, or stuck in the Group of Death.
I'll be fairly busy on the Saturday (and potentially Championship Sunday) of the Major, so updates to the Boston Major Hub could be sporadic; odds updates will likely have to wait until the end of the day in any case. If you want to stay somewhat more updated, follow me on Twitter.
I'll see you all before Paris.